Three or four years ago and the e-book was a joke. It was something sought after by hard core nerds or a few fans trying to get the next Harry Potter book for free. Nobody in the publishing industry thought that electronic text was going to make it big, let alone consider it the savior for the dying publishing industry.
A lot has changed since then. Last October the publishing industry got a huge wake up call with plummeting sales and a very frightening outlook for the future. The only good news was in the e-book department- e-book sales were up an astonishing 73%, compared to the floundering sales in the rest of the market. Even Google Trends shows a large spike in searches for the phrase “ebook” in 2008.
Google Trends – Searches for phrase "ebook"
The US Trade Wholesale Electronic Books Sales Statistics shows a drastic increase from over a year ago, rising from 8 million dollars to 16 million dollars, and it only shows the fifteen or so booksellers that released their e-books statistics. You have schools all over the world ditching those expensive and heavy to carry textbooks for their cheaper, lighter e-paper based cousins.
US Trade Wholesale Electronic Book Sales
Most pundits agree that the rising popularity of e-books is entirely due to the latest innovations in e-paper. In the past few months we’ve seen a lot of buzz build up over a short period time, all focused around some innovative new e-paper technologies. The future is only going to get brighter as more competition enters the fray later this year, spurning on the rapid demise of traditional print books.
Dire Circumstances for the Book Biz
Borders has had a brutal past few months, ending last year with announcement that they need to generate over 42.5 million in revenue very quickly or they’ll be going out of business. This isn’t just bad news for the book industry; it’s also bad news for magazines and newspapers as well, since these stores are big movers and shakers in both businesses.
Even though brick and mortar stores are seeing the twilight of their short lived empire, online retailer Amazon.com is still doing phenomenally. Some think that this has to do with their embrace of e-books and e-paper devices like the Kindle. A lot of industry insiders are seeing e-paper as a new lease on life, circumventing the costly issues of printing books, newspapers and magazines and then shipping them out to the stores. By using a dedicated e-reader, they can all save money and keep up with the new trends. Not to mention it’s a lot kinder on the environment than traditional book publishing.
It Takes a Kindle to Start a Fire
Many people blame the rising tide for e-book sales on the Kindle and the brand spanking new Kindle 2. Both products received a large amount of buzz in a short amount of time, both during a period of penny pinching and hard recession. Backed by Oprah and Stephen King, the Kindle and the Kindle 2 proved to be bestsellers in a rocky market.
Following the release of the Kindle 2 was the announcement of the new Kindle iPhone app. The theory was that by giving away the iPhone app for free, they would get people hooked on reading e-books and they would eventually go out and buy a Kindle 2. So far, the plan seems to be working splendidly.
Barnes & Noble Strikes Back
Even though the book giant has seen some lagging sales as of late they do have a game plan for the future, and it does involve a heavy does of e-paper and e-books. They recently purchased Fictionwise for a cool 15.7 million dollars, giving them a fast leg up against the Kindle competition. Fictionwise was the biggest retailer for e-books in the last few years, selling over 5 million e-books last year alone.
Fictionwise is also very open when it comes to what you can do with your e-books. It’s not tied to a specific device, so you can download and read on your computer, on your cell phone, or on any e-reader of your own choosing, including Sony’s Ereader and many others. Industry insiders consider this a bold move for Barnes and Nobles, and one that will greatly benefit the e-book and e-reader market, spurring innovation and competition from all sides.
There have also been some talks about a deal between Fictionwise and Plastic Logic, and maybe integrating Fictionwise’s two e-book stores as seamlessly within their new e-reader as Amazon’s is with the Kindle. If that’s the case we might have an e-reader war on our hands late in 2009 between Plastic Logic and the Kindle 3, just in time for the Christmas season. And that can only be a good thing. Will e-paper and e-books be the saviors of the publishing industry? One can only hope.
By Paul Jessup
amazon, barnes & noble, ebook, fictionwise, kindle, platic logic
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Great Article Paul. Yes, I think 2009 will be the year for the ebook. There are a lot of exciting things that will happen these next few months. The only thing I can think of that might hold back ebook/epaper growth is the current state of the economy - I think many companies are pulling back on R&D.
Even though the economy is doing poorly, oddly enough ebook seem to be doing really really well. The only way it could spur even faster growth is for us to finally get a sub $100 USD ereader using epaper. The minute that happens, recession or no, I can easily see this taking off.
The problem (IMHO) is eBooks themselves. We have this Tower of eBable that a lot of people just don’t want anything to do with. You want to purchase a specific eBook and you have a Kindle and Amazon doesn’t have it yet it’s available over at CyberRead in Mobipocket, too bad. If you have a Sony and want to get a book that’s over at ereader.com, too bad.
There there is the issue of interoperability. If I want a Sony and my wife wanted a Kindle, we would have to purchase multiple copies of the same eBook if we even could.
This is all without stripping DRM/converting which I can do and would do. But for the average person, this is a real issue. And it’s an issue that needs to get solved before eBooks can become mainstream. All those articles saying that Amazon is mainstreaming eBooks is hogwash. Nobody is mainstreaming anything to do with eBooks. Too many formats, too much DRM, interoperability issues and not all eBooks are available in all formats. So until this mess gets cleaned up, the hardware really isn’t an issue. The hardware won’t be an issue until the eBook mess is no longer a mess. And the solution is DRM free ePub.
I think a lot will happen in 2009, but for a real “breakthrough,” we need two things: A drastic price cut in readers and most e-books; and more compelling hardware/features that convince more of the public to buy readers or use smartphones, PDAs, etc for reading. The former could happen in 2009, but the latter will take longer, on the order of a few more years, to happen. Even if some manufacturer is working on “the” device right now, I wouldn’t expect it to hit the streets until 2010 at the earliest, and then marketing has to get the word out.
Bottom line, I think 2009 is too early to be the e-books’ “year,” unless e-book prices drop so significantly that the world starts using whatever they already have to read e-books, letting the dedicated devices “catch up” to the market.
I think that when you look back at the ebook history in 10 years time, it will be either the release of the kindle OR the release of some 9.7 inch device in late 2009 or early 2010 the start of the “end” of paper media (it will never be a end to paper media, but the digital newpapers of the future will prob write it like that )
but the year of the ebook, will not happen in 2009… At least I dont think so, 2010 maybe, 2011 is a better guess…
Well, there is some recent news that really makes me think that I was right when I said 2009 would be the year of the ebook. Sony dropped the prince on the 700 (making it below the prince of the Kindle) and Google released all of it’s scanned books in epub format (which the 700 can read).
The fact that the prices are dropping AND competition is heating up means (to me) that prices will continue to drop. And with Sony and Amazon both releasing NEW ereaders by the end of the year, it means that we will see the Sony 505 dropping below $200. Which could be the purchase point for a lot of people.
JS Wold, you said:
“The problem (IMHO) is eBooks themselves. We have this Tower of eBable that a lot of people just don’t want anything to do with. You want to purchase a specific eBook and you have a Kindle and Amazon doesn’t have it yet it’s available over at CyberRead in Mobipocket, too bad. If you have a Sony and want to get a book that’s over at ereader.com, too bad.”
Actually, Sony can grab and read books from ereader.com. No problem. Same with Fictionwise and a load of other places. It’s the Kindle that’s tied down in format (and will cause massive headaches in the future- the wireless purchasing that everyone loves will cause more and more problems).
Right now it looks like either the Kindle format will be the standard (boo! that means everyone has to own a device with a Kindle app) or epub will (yay! completely open and portable).
“There there is the issue of interoperability. If I want a Sony and my wife wanted a Kindle, we would have to purchase multiple copies of the same eBook if we even could.”
You had the same problem with iPods before they went DRM free. And that didn’t stop people from buying them.
I agree, the e-book readers are coming. Competition is heating up and the growth rates (on a % basis) are phenomenal. However the yearly sales are still low, compared to other high volume electronic devices. My best guess is around 1 million units for 2008. This puts e-book readers on a good course to become the next growth engine for the display industry. Based on the current display infrastructure, sales figures need to be much higher to drive prices down more aggressively. I believe this will happen within the next 3 to 4 years. This is when we can celebrate the year (or the decade) of the e-book reader.
I like the idea of a digital reader, but I also hate to give up the capability of having six books open at a time when I’m researching a project. I also dislike the fact that digital books are not currently a viable option for public libraries, and that I can not pass along one I’m finished with to a friend or buy them “used.”